Climate Risk Assessment for Glenelg, SA

Glenelg, South Australia· City of Holdfast Bay· 5045

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Glenelg is a coastal suburb in South Australia facing increasing risks from climate change. The primary concerns are coastal erosion, flooding, and heatwaves, which are expected to worsen with rising sea levels and increasing temperatures. Residents and property owners should consider adaptation measures to mitigate these risks.

Overall Risk Score

58/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

6.7

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Glenelg

increasing

Flood

65/100

Glenelg faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity and rising sea levels could exacerbate flood events.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased rainfall intensity

stable

Bushfire

30/100

Bushfire risk in Glenelg is relatively low due to its urbanized environment and distance from significant bushland areas. However, dry vegetation in parks and reserves could pose a localized risk.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Windy conditions

increasing

Heat

70/100

Glenelg experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during summer months. Urban heat island effect and increasing average temperatures contribute to this risk.

Key drivers:

·Increasing average temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

67/100

Glenelg is highly vulnerable to coastal erosion and sea level rise. The coastline is exposed to storm surges and rising sea levels, threatening infrastructure and properties.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surge

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty northerly winds

stable

Storm

24/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — summer cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Glenelg

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Glenelg experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during summer months. Urban heat island effect and increasing average temperatures contribute to this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increasing average temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Glenelg faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity and rising sea levels could exacerbate flood events.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased rainfall intensity
·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

67/100

Glenelg is highly vulnerable to coastal erosion and sea level rise. The coastline is exposed to storm surges and rising sea levels, threatening infrastructure and properties.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surge
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.8

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Bushfire risk in Glenelg is relatively low due to its urbanized environment and distance from significant bushland areas. However, dry vegetation in parks and reserves could pose a localized risk.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Windy conditions
·Arson

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate change risks.

Price Impact

Properties closer to the coast may experience price reductions due to erosion and flood risks.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess coastal erosion risks.
3.Evaluate property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related events.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Patawalonga River
Elevation Range: 0-10 meters
Flood Zone: Coastal Flood Zone

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 5 km to nearest scrubland
Planning Overlay: No significant bushfire overlay
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: High exposure to sea level rise
Erosion Risk: Significant erosion risk along the coastline

Historical Climate Events

2016

stormModerate

A severe storm caused flash flooding and property damage in Glenelg.

Source

2014

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns for residents.

Source

2007

stormMajor

A major storm caused significant coastal erosion and damage to beachfront properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	6.8(+0.3)	7.2(+0.7)
bushfire	30	3.1(+0.1)	3.2(+0.2)
heat	70	7.6(+0.6)	8.0(+1.0)
coastal	67	7.1(+0.4)	7.6(+0.9)

By 2030, Glenelg is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and coastal erosion.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Immediate

Construct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against erosion and sea level rise.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote energy efficiency and reduce urban heat island effect

Long-term

Encourage the use of cool roofs, green spaces, and energy-efficient buildings to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop community emergency plans

Near-term

Create community-based emergency plans to prepare for and respond to extreme weather events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Glenelg's Climate Risk Profile

Glenelg, a popular seaside suburb in South Australia, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Its low-lying coastal location makes it particularly susceptible to sea level rise and storm surges, which can lead to coastal erosion and flooding.

The risk of flooding is further exacerbated by increased rainfall intensity, which can overwhelm drainage systems and cause flash flooding. The urban environment also contributes to the urban heat island effect, increasing the severity of heatwaves during summer months.

While the risk of bushfire is relatively low compared to other areas, dry vegetation in parks and reserves can still pose a localized threat. It's important for residents to maintain their properties and be aware of fire safety during dry periods.

Climate projections indicate that these risks will continue to increase in the coming decades. Sea levels are expected to rise, leading to further coastal erosion and inundation. Average temperatures will also increase, resulting in more frequent and intense heatwaves. Residents and property owners should take proactive steps to adapt to these changes and protect their assets.

The City of Holdfast Bay is actively working to address climate change risks through various adaptation strategies. These include improving drainage infrastructure, implementing coastal protection measures, and promoting energy efficiency. Residents can also play a role by adopting sustainable practices and preparing for extreme weather events.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SA Emergency Services · City of Holdfast Bay

Local Government Resources

City of Holdfast Bay

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Glenelg?

The main climate change risks in Glenelg are coastal erosion, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase with rising sea levels and increasing temperatures.

How will sea level rise affect Glenelg?

Sea level rise will lead to increased coastal erosion and inundation of low-lying areas in Glenelg, threatening properties and infrastructure.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding?

You can take several steps to protect your property from flooding, including improving drainage, raising the foundation, and installing flood barriers.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Glenelg?

To prepare for heatwaves, stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

What is the City of Holdfast Bay doing to address climate change?

The City of Holdfast Bay is implementing various adaptation strategies, including improving drainage infrastructure, implementing coastal protection measures, and promoting energy efficiency.