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Climate Risk Profile: Manly, SA

Manly, South Australia
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Manly, SA faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly coastal inundation and heatwaves. Bushfire and flood risks are also present and expected to worsen. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
8.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly

increasing

Flood

40/100

Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

30/100

Bushfire risk is present due to nearby vegetation. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

80/100

Coastal inundation and erosion are significant threats due to sea level rise. Infrastructure and properties near the coast are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty northerly winds

stable

Storm

24/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — summer cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

80/100

Coastal inundation and erosion are significant threats due to sea level rise. Infrastructure and properties near the coast are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Bushfire risk is present due to nearby vegetation. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation density

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price decreases.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Evaluate coastal erosion potential
  • 4.Consider heatwave impacts
  • 5.Review insurance options

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
St Vincent Gulf
Elevation Range
0-10m
Flood Zone
Coastal Flood Zone

Low-lying areas near the coast are most vulnerable to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
5km
Planning Overlay
CFS Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas near vegetated land are at higher risk of bushfire.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2019
heatwaveMajor

Record-breaking temperatures caused heat stress and health concerns.

Source
2015
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in nearby areas caused smoke haze and potential evacuation warnings.

Source
2007
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire303.5(+0.5)4.0(+1.0)
heat707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
coastal808.5(+0.5)9.0(+1.0)

By 2030, Manly is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood, bushfire, heat, and coastal hazards.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Protection Measures

Immediate

Implement coastal protection measures such as seawalls and beach nourishment to reduce erosion and inundation risks.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Near-term

Implement bushfire risk mitigation measures such as vegetation management and fire breaks to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Flood Management Infrastructure

Long-term

Invest in flood management infrastructure such as improved drainage systems and flood barriers to reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Manly's Climate Risk Profile

Manly, South Australia, is a suburb that will be increasingly affected by climate change. The primary risks include coastal inundation due to sea level rise, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and an increased risk of bushfires and flooding.

Coastal inundation poses a significant threat to properties and infrastructure near the coast. Sea level rise, combined with storm surges, can lead to erosion and damage to coastal areas. Planning and adaptation measures are crucial to mitigate these impacts.

Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Urban planning should consider strategies to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide cooling spaces for residents.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, particularly during the dry summer months. Increased temperatures and drier conditions can create a higher risk of bushfires, threatening properties and ecosystems. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have evacuation plans in place.

Flooding can occur due to heavy rainfall events, which are expected to become more intense with climate change. Proper drainage and flood management strategies are essential to protect properties and infrastructure from flood damage.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · CFS · SA Government Environment and Water

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Flood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Manly?

The main climate change risks for Manly include coastal inundation, heatwaves, bushfires, and flooding.

How will sea level rise affect Manly?

Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal inundation and erosion, particularly for properties near the coast.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned spaces, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

What are the bushfire risks in Manly?

Bushfire risks are present due to nearby vegetation. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have evacuation plans in place.

How can I protect my property from flooding?

Consider installing flood barriers, improving drainage, and elevating vulnerable equipment.

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