Climate Risk in Tea Tree Gully, South Australia

Tea Tree Gully, South Australia· City of Tea Tree Gully· 5097

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Tea Tree Gully faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. While not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the suburb should prepare for potential indirect impacts from changing weather patterns. Residents and property owners are advised to take proactive measures to mitigate these risks.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tea Tree Gully

increasing

Flood

45/100

Tea Tree Gully faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Tea Tree Gully has a relatively high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

50/100

Tea Tree Gully experiences hot summers, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase with climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Tea Tree Gully is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion. However, changes in weather patterns could indirectly affect the region.

Key drivers:

·Distance from coast

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty northerly winds

stable

Storm

24/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — summer cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tea Tree Gully

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Primary Drivers

·Rising temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Tea Tree Gully faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Creek overflow

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Primary Drivers

·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas with higher flood or bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Dry Creek
Elevation Range: 100-200m
Flood Zone: Areas near Dry Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to Anstey Hill Recreation Park
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Prone Area Overlay applies to parts of the suburb.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2016

stormModerate

Severe storms caused flash flooding and property damage in Tea Tree Gully.

Source

2019

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source

2020

bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Anstey Hill Recreation Park threatened properties in Tea Tree Gully.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.8(+0.3)	5.0(+0.5)
bushfire	60	6.4(+0.4)	6.8(+0.8)
heat	50	5.6(+0.6)	6.2(+1.2)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Tea Tree Gully is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and bushfires, with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement bushfire management plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a comprehensive bushfire management plan, including fuel reduction and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Increase green spaces

Near-term

Expand green spaces and tree canopy cover to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water demand during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Tea Tree Gully's Climate Risk Profile

Tea Tree Gully, located in the northeastern suburbs of Adelaide, South Australia, is exposed to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding from heavy rainfall events, bushfire risk due to proximity to bushland, and increasing heatwave frequency and intensity.

The risk of flooding is primarily associated with local creeks and drainage systems that can overflow during periods of intense rainfall. Climate change projections indicate an increase in extreme rainfall events, which could exacerbate this risk. Effective stormwater management and flood mitigation measures are crucial to protect properties and infrastructure.

The suburb's proximity to bushland areas elevates the risk of bushfires, particularly during hot, dry summers. Climate change is expected to prolong fire seasons and increase the severity of bushfires. Residents should maintain firebreaks, clear vegetation around their homes, and have a bushfire survival plan in place.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations. Urban areas like Tea Tree Gully can experience the urban heat island effect, further amplifying temperatures. Measures to reduce heat exposure, such as increasing green spaces and improving building insulation, are essential.

While Tea Tree Gully is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, changes in weather patterns and extreme events could indirectly affect the region. It is important to monitor climate projections and adapt to changing conditions to ensure the long-term resilience of the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SA Emergency Services · City of Tea Tree Gully

Local Government Resources

City of Tea Tree Gully

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Tea Tree Gully?

The main climate change risks in Tea Tree Gully are increased flooding from heavy rainfall, higher bushfire risk due to hotter and drier conditions, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.

How is the council preparing for climate change?

The City of Tea Tree Gully is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies, including upgrading stormwater infrastructure, managing bushfire risk, and promoting water conservation.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, checking on vulnerable neighbors, and following heat safety advice from health authorities.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

To protect your property from bushfires, clear vegetation around your home, maintain firebreaks, install ember guards, and have a bushfire survival plan in place.

Where can I find information about flood risks in my area?

You can find information about flood risks in your area on the City of Tea Tree Gully website or by contacting the council's infrastructure department.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Tea Tree Gully, use our analysis tool.

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30-120%

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