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Climate Risk Profile: Ellendale, TAS

Ellendale, Tasmania
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Ellendale faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ellendale

increasing

Flood

60/100

Ellendale faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Ellendale has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Higher temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Ellendale is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This could pose a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Ellendale is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ellendale

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Ellendale is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This could pose a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Ellendale faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Low-lying areas

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Ellendale is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Ellendale has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Higher temperatures
  • ·Surrounding vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increased climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and prepare a bushfire survival plan.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property and health.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Derwent River
Elevation Range
100-200m
Flood Zone
Unknown

The Derwent River is the closest major waterway to Ellendale. Historical flood data is limited, but the risk is projected to increase.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
Unknown
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Ellendale is surrounded by bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires. Check the Tasmanian Fire Service website for current fire danger ratings.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
25°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
1 days

Average January maximum temperature is around 25 degrees Celsius. Heat stress events are becoming more common.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
60 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region surrounding Ellendale, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in the Derwent Valley, affecting Ellendale and surrounding areas.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Tasmania, with record temperatures recorded in many areas, including Ellendale.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in low-lying areas of Ellendale due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat505.4(+0.4)5.8(+0.8)
coastal101.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Ellendale is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in flood defenses, such as levees and drainage improvements, to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Develop and implement a community bushfire preparedness plan, including evacuation routes and firebreaks.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water conservation measures to reduce water demand during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Ellendale's Climate Risk Profile

Ellendale, Tasmania, is a rural locality that faces a number of climate-related challenges. The primary concerns are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall, a heightened risk of bushfires due to drier conditions, and more frequent heatwaves.

The risk of flooding is particularly concerning due to the proximity of waterways. Climate change models predict an increase in rainfall intensity, which could lead to more frequent and severe flood events. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

The bushfire risk is also a significant concern. The surrounding vegetation and drier conditions create a favorable environment for bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk, with higher temperatures and prolonged dry periods.

Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense. This could pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take steps to stay cool during heatwaves.

While Ellendale is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events, could still have indirect effects on the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Tasmanian Fire Service

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Ellendale?

The main climate change risks for Ellendale are increased flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Ellendale?

Climate change may negatively affect property values in Ellendale due to increased risks of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. However, proactive adaptation measures can help mitigate these impacts.

What can I do to prepare for increased heatwaves in Ellendale?

To prepare for increased heatwaves, stay hydrated, stay cool, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or visiting a cooling center during extreme heat.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Ellendale?

Information about flood risks in Ellendale can be found on the Tasmanian State Emergency Service website and potentially from the local council, if available.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Ellendale?

To protect your home from bushfires, clear vegetation around your home, install fire-resistant materials, and develop a bushfire survival plan.

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