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Climate Risk Profile: Manly, TAS

Manly, Tasmania
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Manly, Tasmania, faces increasing climate risks, particularly from heatwaves and flooding. Sea level rise and bushfire risk also contribute to the overall vulnerability of the suburb. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and consider adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly

increasing

Flood

65/100

Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

Bushfire risk in Manly is relatively low but present due to nearby bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

71/100

Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

54/100

Manly faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards could impact infrastructure and property values.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

54/100

Manly faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards could impact infrastructure and property values.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.9

2050

6.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Bushfire risk in Manly is relatively low but present due to nearby bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Derwent River
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Partially within a flood zone

The lower parts of Manly are more susceptible to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km
Planning Overlay
UNKNOWN
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Some areas of Manly are designated as bushfire-prone.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
22.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent in Tasmania.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
1.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas may be exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk in some coastal areas.

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Derwent Valley, impacting nearby areas.

Source
2019
bushfireMinor

Bushfires impacted parts of Tasmania, leading to smoke haze in Manly.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Tasmania experienced a prolonged heatwave, with record temperatures recorded in some areas.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of southern Tasmania.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.7(+0.5)
heat717.8(+0.7)8.5(+1.4)
coastal545.8(+0.4)6.2(+0.8)

By 2030, Manly is projected to experience a noticeable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Coastal risks will also begin to increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Home Insulation

Near-term

Proper insulation can help keep homes cooler in summer and warmer in winter, reducing energy consumption and improving comfort during extreme weather events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Install Rainwater Tanks

Near-term

Rainwater tanks can provide a supplementary water supply for gardens and other non-potable uses, reducing demand on the municipal water supply during droughts and heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Support Local Climate Action Plans

Long-term

Engage with local government and community organizations to support the development and implementation of climate action plans that address the specific vulnerabilities of Manly.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Prepare for Heatwaves

Immediate

Develop a heatwave plan that includes identifying cool places to go, staying hydrated, and checking on vulnerable neighbors.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Manly's Climate Risk Profile

Manly, Tasmania, is a suburb that will be increasingly affected by climate change. The primary risks include more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased flooding due to heavier rainfall, and the potential for coastal inundation from sea level rise.

The risk of heatwaves is a significant concern, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The urban environment can exacerbate the effects of heatwaves, creating urban heat islands.

Flooding is another major risk, with the potential for increased rainfall intensity to overwhelm drainage systems and cause property damage. Sea level rise also poses a threat to low-lying coastal areas.

While bushfire risk is relatively lower compared to other parts of Australia, it is still a concern, particularly during dry periods. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and be prepared for potential bushfire events.

Adapting to these changes will require a combination of individual actions and community-level initiatives. This includes measures such as improving home insulation, installing rainwater tanks, and supporting local efforts to enhance climate resilience.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Tasmanian Fire Service

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Manly?

The main risks include more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased flooding due to heavier rainfall, and potential coastal inundation from sea level rise.

How can I prepare my home for heatwaves?

Improve insulation, install window coverings, and consider air conditioning. Also, develop a heatwave plan that includes identifying cool places to go and staying hydrated.

What can I do to reduce my flood risk?

Ensure your property is properly drained, clear gutters and downpipes, and consider installing a rainwater tank. Check if your property is in a flood zone and take appropriate precautions.

Is Manly in a bushfire-prone area?

Yes, some areas of Manly are designated as bushfire-prone. Maintain your property to reduce fuel loads and be prepared for potential bushfire events.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Tasmania?

The CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology provide valuable information about climate change impacts and projections for Tasmania. The Tasmanian government also has resources available on its website.

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$300B+
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30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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Climate Risk Profile for Manly, TAS | ClimateNest