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Climate Risk Profile: Black Range, VIC

Black Range, Victoria· Northern Grampians Shire
High Risk
Updated June 2026

Black Range faces significant climate-related risks, particularly from bushfires, heatwaves and flooding. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades, requiring proactive adaptation measures. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
8.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Black Range

increasing

Flood

65/100

Black Range faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is exacerbated by the area's topography and existing drainage infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

80/100

Black Range is at high risk of bushfires due to its proximity to dense vegetation and prevailing dry conditions, especially during summer. The risk is amplified by strong winds and potential lightning strikes.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

70/100

Black Range experiences a high risk of heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events. This poses a significant threat to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Black Range is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

45/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Black Range

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Black Range experiences a high risk of heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events. This poses a significant threat to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Black Range faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is exacerbated by the area's topography and existing drainage infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Black Range is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

80/100

Black Range is at high risk of bushfires due to its proximity to dense vegetation and prevailing dry conditions, especially during summer. The risk is amplified by strong winds and potential lightning strikes.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves
  • 3.Review insurance options
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local Creeks
Elevation Range
250-300m
Flood Zone
Areas near creeks

Historical flood data indicates localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as a bushfire-prone area due to the surrounding vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
200 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Black Range threatened properties and required evacuations.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall, impacting some local roads.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.0(+0.5)
bushfire808.4(+0.4)8.7(+0.7)
heat707.6(+0.6)8.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Black Range is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased bushfire risk, and a higher likelihood of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. The overall risk score increases by 0.5.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Mitigation Measures

Immediate

Reduce fuel loads around properties, create firebreaks, and improve community awareness of bushfire risks.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Establish Cooling Centers

Near-term

Provide public cooling centers to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water-saving practices to ensure adequate water supply during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop Community Emergency Plans

Immediate

Create and regularly update community emergency plans to ensure residents are prepared for various climate-related disasters.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Black Range's Climate Risk Profile

Black Range, Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding, all of which are expected to intensify in the future.

Bushfire risk is particularly high due to the suburb's location amidst dense vegetation. Hot, dry summers combined with strong winds create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly. Residents need to be vigilant and prepared for potential evacuations.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with average temperatures rising and extreme heat events becoming more frequent. This poses a significant threat to the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions. Access to cooling centers and adequate hydration are crucial during these events.

Flooding is another risk, primarily from intense rainfall events that can overwhelm local drainage systems. Properties located near creeks and low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable. Improving drainage infrastructure and implementing flood mitigation measures are essential.

Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort from residents, local government, and emergency services. By taking proactive steps to adapt to the changing climate, Black Range can enhance its resilience and protect its community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Northern Grampians Shire

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Black Range?

Black Range is primarily at risk from bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding, all of which are projected to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for a bushfire?

You can prepare your property by reducing fuel loads around your home, creating firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan in place.

Where can I go during a heatwave to stay cool?

The Northern Grampians Shire Council may establish cooling centers during heatwaves. Check their website or contact them for locations and operating hours.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Northern Grampians Shire Council is developing and implementing climate strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Check their website for more information.

How can I find out if my property is in a flood-prone area?

You can check the council's flood maps or contact them directly to determine if your property is located in a flood-prone area.

What should I include in my emergency kit?

Your emergency kit should include water, non-perishable food, a first-aid kit, a battery-powered radio, a flashlight, and any necessary medications.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Black Range, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Black Range →

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$300B+
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30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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