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Climate Risk Assessment for Chatsworth, VIC

Chatsworth, Victoria· Northern Grampians Shire· 3312
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Chatsworth faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with a significant bushfire risk due to its location. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Chatsworth

increasing

Flood

45/100

Chatsworth faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and nearby waterways. Local topography can exacerbate the impact of floods.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

60/100

The area around Chatsworth has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding grasslands and forests. Hot, dry conditions during summer increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Chatsworth is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Chatsworth is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Chatsworth

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Chatsworth is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Chatsworth faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and nearby waterways. Local topography can exacerbate the impact of floods.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.2

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Chatsworth is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area around Chatsworth has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding grasslands and forests. Hot, dry conditions during summer increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Windy conditions

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.1

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the increasing risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Wimmera River
Elevation Range
200-250m
Flood Zone
Low-lying areas near the Wimmera River

Historical flood events have impacted low-lying areas near the Wimmera River. Council provides flood maps and advice for residents.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to forested areas
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Chatsworth is located in a designated bushfire-prone area. Residents should maintain their properties and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The average maximum temperature in January is 32°C, with an average of 3 heat stress events per year. These events can pose a risk to vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
200 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting low-lying areas and causing property damage.

Source
2009
bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires caused widespread devastation across Victoria, including areas near Chatsworth.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected the region, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in some parts of the region, leading to road closures and property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.2(+0.7)
bushfire606.1(+0.1)6.2(+0.2)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Chatsworth is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks. Bushfire risk remains relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as improved drainage systems and levees.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement community education programs and improve bushfire management practices.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to address potential water shortages due to climate change.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Chatsworth's Climate Risk Profile

Chatsworth, Victoria, is a rural locality that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from intense rainfall, bushfires due to dry conditions and surrounding vegetation, and heatwaves that can strain local resources.

The risk of flooding is expected to increase as rainfall patterns become more erratic and intense. Bushfire risk remains a constant threat, particularly during the summer months. Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and severe, posing health risks to vulnerable populations.

While Chatsworth is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader region is affected by climate change impacts that can indirectly affect the community. These include disruptions to agriculture and increased strain on infrastructure.

Adapting to these changes will require a combination of community preparedness, infrastructure improvements, and policy changes to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Residents should stay informed about local risks and take steps to protect themselves and their property.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Northern Grampians Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Chatsworth?

The main climate change risks in Chatsworth include increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a high risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Chatsworth?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increasing risk of flooding and bushfires.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Chatsworth?

You should maintain your property, develop a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about local fire conditions.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Chatsworth?

You can find information about flood risks on the Northern Grampians Shire Council website and through local emergency services.

What resources are available to help me cope with heatwaves in Chatsworth?

The Northern Grampians Shire Council and local health services can provide information and support during heatwaves.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Chatsworth, use our analysis tool.

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