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Climate Risk in Macedon, Victoria

Macedon, Victoria
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Macedon faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, and a high risk from bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in the coming decades. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.2
Bushfire
6.5
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Macedon

increasing

Flood

42/100

Macedon faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

65/100

Macedon has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to heavily vegetated areas. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Macedon is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

15/100

Macedon is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location. Coastal hazards are not a significant concern for this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Inland location
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Macedon

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Macedon is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.2

Data source

flood Risk

42/100

Macedon faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

15/100

Macedon is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location. Coastal hazards are not a significant concern for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Inland location

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.5

2050

1.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

65/100

Macedon has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to heavily vegetated areas. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increasing risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Deep Creek
Elevation Range
500-700m
Flood Zone
Areas near Deep Creek are prone to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that properties near Deep Creek have experienced flooding in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Macedon Regional Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Macedon is located in a designated bushfire prone area, requiring properties to adhere to specific building standards.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2.5 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
70 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2009
bushfireCatastrophic

The Black Saturday bushfires caused widespread devastation across Victoria, including areas near Macedon.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Macedon, affecting several properties.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January resulted in high temperatures and increased demand for emergency services.

Source
2023
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to trees and powerlines in Macedon, leading to power outages.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood424.5(+0.3)4.9(+0.7)
bushfire656.9(+0.4)7.4(+0.9)
heat505.6(+0.6)6.1(+1.1)
coastal151.51.5

By 2030, Macedon is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in bushfire and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement bushfire mitigation measures

Immediate

Reduce fuel loads around properties and implement community fireguard programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce the strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Macedon's Climate Risk Profile

Macedon, located in Victoria, is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. The suburb's proximity to forested areas increases its vulnerability to bushfires, especially during dry and hot conditions. Climate change projections indicate that these conditions will become more frequent and severe, leading to a higher risk of bushfires.

Flooding is another significant concern for Macedon. Heavy rainfall events can cause waterways to overflow, leading to property damage and disruption to infrastructure. The risk of flooding is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall events. It is important for residents to be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense in Macedon. High temperatures can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. It is important to stay hydrated, seek shelter in cool places, and check on neighbors during heatwaves.

While Macedon is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the impacts of climate change on other regions can indirectly affect the suburb. Changes in weather patterns and increased frequency of extreme weather events can have cascading effects on the economy and society.

Overall, Macedon faces a range of climate-related challenges. It is important for residents, businesses, and local authorities to work together to adapt to these changes and build a more resilient community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Macedon Ranges Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Macedon?

The main climate risks facing Macedon are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare for a bushfire in Macedon?

You can prepare for a bushfire by reducing fuel loads around your property, developing a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

What should I do during a heatwave in Macedon?

During a heatwave, you should stay hydrated, seek shelter in cool places, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Macedon?

You can find information about flood risks on the Macedon Ranges Shire Council website and the Victorian State Emergency Service website.

How is the Macedon Ranges Shire Council addressing climate change?

The Macedon Ranges Shire Council is developing and implementing climate change strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

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This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Macedon, use our analysis tool.

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