Climate Risk in Manly, Victoria

Manly, Victoria

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Manly, VIC, faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly related to heatwaves and coastal hazards. Flooding and bushfire risks are also present. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

6.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly

increasing

Flood

45/100

Manly, VIC, faces a moderate risk of flooding. This is due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

30/100

The bushfire risk in Manly, VIC, is relatively low compared to other regions in Victoria. However, the risk is still present due to nearby grasslands and bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

70/100

Manly, VIC, is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Urban areas tend to amplify the heat effect.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

63/100

Manly, VIC, faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to inundation of low-lying coastal areas. Erosion is also a concern, potentially impacting infrastructure and property.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

63/100

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges
·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.3

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price declines.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.
4.Review insurance options and costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Port Phillip Bay
Elevation Range: 0-10 meters
Flood Zone: Coastal Inundation Zone

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 2 km
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Moderate
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2023

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas.

Source

2019

heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased hospital admissions.

Source

2015

stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to property and infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.7(+0.2)	5.2(+0.7)
bushfire	30	3.1(+0.1)	3.4(+0.4)
heat	70	7.5(+0.5)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	63	6.7(+0.4)	7.5(+1.2)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Manly is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave and coastal risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal protection structures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Educate residents about bushfire risks and encourage them to develop bushfire survival plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Manly's Climate Risk Profile

Manly, VIC, is a suburb that will be increasingly affected by climate change. The primary risks include more frequent and intense heatwaves, rising sea levels, and the potential for increased flooding. Bushfire risk, while lower than some other areas in Victoria, should not be ignored.

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of residents, especially vulnerable populations. Rising sea levels and storm surges could lead to inundation of low-lying coastal areas, impacting infrastructure and property values. Changes in rainfall patterns may increase the risk of flooding.

While Manly is not as heavily forested as some other Victorian suburbs, the risk of bushfires should still be considered, especially during dry periods. Residents should maintain awareness of fire danger ratings and have a bushfire survival plan in place.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of individual preparedness, community resilience initiatives, and government policies. Residents can take steps to reduce their vulnerability to heatwaves, flooding, and bushfires. Community-level initiatives can help to build resilience and support vulnerable populations. Government policies can promote sustainable development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · Melbourne Water

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Manly?

The main climate change risks in Manly include more frequent and intense heatwaves, rising sea levels, increased flooding, and a potential increase in bushfire risk.

How will rising sea levels affect Manly?

Rising sea levels could lead to inundation of low-lying coastal areas, impacting infrastructure, property values, and recreational areas.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Manly?

You can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, checking on vulnerable neighbors, and developing a heatwave response plan.

Is my property at risk of flooding in Manly?

Properties in low-lying areas near the coast or waterways are at higher risk of flooding. Check flood maps and council resources to assess your property's risk.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Manly?

You can protect your home from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, maintaining your roof and gutters, and developing a bushfire survival plan.