Climate Risk Assessment for Myrtleford, VIC

Myrtleford, Victoria· Alpine· 3737
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Myrtleford is a town in northeast Victoria that faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.8
Heat
5.3
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Myrtleford

increasing

Flood

65/100

Myrtleford faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Ovens River and other waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding, impacting low-lying areas and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in river flow patterns
increasing

Bushfire

48/100

The area around Myrtleford has a moderate bushfire risk due to the surrounding forests and dry vegetation. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

53/100

Myrtleford is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, infrastructure, and agriculture.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Myrtleford is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·N/A
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Myrtleford

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

53/100

Myrtleford is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, infrastructure, and agriculture.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.3

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Myrtleford faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Ovens River and other waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding, impacting low-lying areas and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in river flow patterns
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Myrtleford is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·N/A

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

48/100

The area around Myrtleford has a moderate bushfire risk due to the surrounding forests and dry vegetation. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.3

2050

5.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the increased risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone or bushfire-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Ovens River
Elevation Range
170-200m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Ovens River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted properties and infrastructure in Myrtleford. The council maintains flood maps and provides guidance on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to state forests
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Much of the land surrounding Myrtleford is designated as a bushfire-prone area. Residents should maintain their properties and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Myrtleford experiences several days above 35°C each summer. Heatwaves can put a strain on the electricity grid and increase demand for cooling.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2012
floodModerate

The Ovens River flooded, impacting low-lying areas of Myrtleford and causing damage to properties and infrastructure.

Source
2009
bushfireCatastrophic

The Black Saturday bushfires caused widespread devastation across Victoria, including areas near Myrtleford. The fires resulted in loss of life, property damage, and environmental destruction.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Myrtleford experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several consecutive days. This put a strain on the electricity grid and increased demand for cooling.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Ovens River to flood, impacting low-lying areas of Myrtleford and disrupting traffic.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire485.1(+0.3)5.4(+0.6)
heat536.0(+0.7)6.5(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Myrtleford is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly heatwaves and floods. Bushfire risk is also expected to increase. Adaptation measures are needed to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect against flooding, such as levees, flood walls, and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement bushfire mitigation measures

Immediate

Clear vegetation around properties, create firebreaks, and develop community evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers, provide assistance to vulnerable populations, and promote water conservation.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Implement water restrictions, encourage the use of rainwater tanks, and invest in water-efficient technologies.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Improve building standards

Long-term

Update building codes to require new buildings to be more resilient to extreme weather events, such as floods and bushfires.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Myrtleford's Climate Risk Profile

Myrtleford, nestled in the Alpine Shire of Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The town's proximity to the Ovens River makes it susceptible to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate models predict an increase in rainfall intensity, which could lead to more frequent and severe flood events.

The surrounding forests also pose a significant bushfire risk, particularly during the hot, dry summer months. Rising temperatures and prolonged droughts are creating conditions that are more conducive to bushfires. Residents need to be vigilant and prepared for potential evacuations.

Heatwaves are becoming more common and intense in Myrtleford, placing a strain on the town's infrastructure and posing health risks to vulnerable populations. The elderly, children, and those with pre-existing medical conditions are particularly at risk during extreme heat events.

While Myrtleford is not directly affected by coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, could indirectly affect the town. It is crucial for the community to take proactive steps to adapt to these challenges.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Emergency Management Victoria · Alpine Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Myrtleford?

Myrtleford faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. These risks could impact property values, infrastructure, and community well-being.

How can I prepare my property for flooding in Myrtleford?

You can prepare your property for flooding by elevating appliances, installing flood barriers, and ensuring that your insurance policy covers flood damage. Check the Alpine Shire Council's flood maps for more information.

What should I do during a heatwave in Myrtleford?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in a cool place, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and friends. The Alpine Shire Council may open cooling centers during extreme heat events.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Myrtleford?

Protect your home from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, creating firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Myrtleford?

You can find information about emergency services in Myrtleford on the Emergency Management Victoria website or by contacting the Alpine Shire Council.

Is Myrtleford likely to experience more droughts in the future?

Climate projections suggest that the region around Myrtleford may experience more frequent and prolonged droughts in the future, which could impact water availability and agriculture.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections