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Climate Risk Assessment: Numurkah, VIC

Numurkah, Victoria· Moira· 3636
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Numurkah faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Numurkah

increasing

Flood

65/100

Numurkah is located near the Broken Creek and is susceptible to flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Rising river levels
increasing

Bushfire

30/100

The area around Numurkah has some bushland, increasing the potential for bushfires, especially during dry and hot conditions. Climate change is projected to lengthen the fire season and increase fire intensity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

60/100

Numurkah experiences hot summers, and climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing risks to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Numurkah is located inland, so coastal risks are minimal.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Numurkah

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Numurkah experiences hot summers, and climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Numurkah is located near the Broken Creek and is susceptible to flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Rising river levels
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Numurkah is located inland, so coastal risks are minimal.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The area around Numurkah has some bushland, increasing the potential for bushfires, especially during dry and hot conditions. Climate change is projected to lengthen the fire season and increase fire intensity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and property protection measures.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency and cooling options.
  • 4.Review council climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Broken Creek
Elevation Range
100-110m
Flood Zone
Areas near Broken Creek are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the creek. Council is working on flood mitigation strategies.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay applies to some properties.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain their properties and be aware of fire danger ratings.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves can strain local healthcare services. Cooling centers may be activated during extreme heat events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
200 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodMajor

Major flooding along Broken Creek inundated parts of Numurkah, causing significant damage to homes and businesses.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 heatwave resulted in record high temperatures and increased demand on local healthcare services.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Moderate flooding along Broken Creek affected low-lying areas in Numurkah.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in early 2019 put stress on infrastructure and residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire303.2(+0.2)3.5(+0.5)
heat606.8(+0.8)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Numurkah is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as an increased risk of flooding. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in improved drainage infrastructure and levees to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan with cooling centers and community outreach programs to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Promote bushfire preparedness through community education and property maintenance programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water conservation measures to address potential drought conditions.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Run community education programs on climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Numurkah's Climate Risk Profile

Numurkah, located in northern Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are rising temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves, and a higher risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. The surrounding agricultural areas are also susceptible to drought conditions, which can be exacerbated by climate change.

The town's proximity to Broken Creek makes it particularly vulnerable to flooding. Climate projections indicate that heavy rainfall events will become more frequent and intense, increasing the likelihood of riverine flooding. This poses a threat to residential areas, infrastructure, and agricultural land.

Heatwaves are another significant concern for Numurkah. The town already experiences hot summers, and climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This can lead to heat stress, particularly among vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Bushfire risk is also present due to the surrounding bushland. While not as immediate a threat as flooding or heatwaves, the risk is projected to increase as climate change leads to drier conditions and a longer fire season.

Adapting to these changes will require a multi-faceted approach, including improved flood management infrastructure, heatwave preparedness plans, and bushfire mitigation strategies. Community awareness and individual preparedness are also crucial for building resilience to climate change impacts.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Moira Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Numurkah?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How is the council preparing for climate change?

The Moira Shire Council is developing climate adaptation plans and investing in flood mitigation infrastructure.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents should stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

What should I do to prepare my property for flooding?

Clear gutters and drains, raise electrical appliances, and have an evacuation plan.

Where can I find information about bushfire risks in Numurkah?

Information is available from the Country Fire Authority (CFA) and the Moira Shire Council.

Are there any community programs to help residents adapt to climate change?

Yes, the Moira Shire Council runs various community education programs on climate resilience.

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