San Remo Climate Risk Profile

San Remo, Victoria· Bass Coast Shire Council· 3925
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

San Remo faces significant coastal and heat risks, with increasing threats from bushfires and moderate flood potential. Proactive adaptation is crucial for long-term resilience.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
8.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for San Remo

increasing

Flood

40/100

Low to moderate flood risk, primarily from minor inundation during extreme rainfall events and potential storm surge impacts.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Moderate bushfire risk due to proximity to coastal heath and grasslands, with potential for ember attack.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased fire weather days
  • ·Fuel load accumulation
increasing

Heat

70/100

High heat risk, with significant increases in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent extreme heat days
increasing

Coastal

80/100

Very high coastal risk due to low elevation, exposure to sea level rise, and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for San Remo

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

High heat risk, with significant increases in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent extreme heat days
  • ·Urban heat island effect (limited)

Projections (RCP 8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Low to moderate flood risk, primarily from minor inundation during extreme rainfall events and potential storm surge impacts.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

80/100

Very high coastal risk due to low elevation, exposure to sea level rise, and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP 8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Moderate bushfire risk due to proximity to coastal heath and grasslands, with potential for ember attack.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased fire weather days
  • ·Fuel load accumulation
  • ·Drier vegetation

Projections (RCP 8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums and potential for reduced cover due to high coastal and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Potential negative impact on property values in high-risk coastal and bushfire-affected areas.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood and bushfire overlays on council planning maps.
  • 2.Review property elevation and proximity to coast/bushland.
  • 3.Inquire about past insurance claims and current premium costs.
  • 4.Assess property's resilience to heatwaves (e.g., cooling, insulation).
  • 5.Understand local emergency evacuation routes and plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Western Port Bay
Elevation Range
0-10m above sea level
Flood Zone
Coastal inundation and storm tide prone areas

Properties closest to the foreshore are most at risk from tidal inundation and storm surge.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to coastal heath and grassland reserves
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The vegetation types present are susceptible to fire, and ember attack from nearby fires is a significant risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Average January maximum temperatures are projected to increase, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
High

Historical Climate Events

1977
bushfireMajor

The 'Ash Wednesday' bushfires impacted areas across Victoria, including regions near San Remo, causing significant destruction and loss of life.

Source
2011
coastalModerate

Significant storm surge and coastal erosion event along the Bass Coast, impacting foreshore infrastructure and properties in low-lying areas.

Source
2016
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave affected Victoria, with extreme temperatures causing health alerts and increased demand on emergency services.

Source
2021
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall led to localized flooding in low-lying areas of San Remo and surrounding coastal towns, impacting roads and some properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP 4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.5(+0.5)5.5(+1.5)
bushfire606.6(+0.6)8.0(+2.0)
heat708.0(+1.0)10.0(+3.0)
coastal808.9(+0.9)11.5(+3.5)

By 2030, San Remo is projected to experience a noticeable increase in overall climate risk, driven primarily by more frequent and intense heatwaves and a heightened coastal risk due to sea level rise. Bushfire risk will also see a moderate increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Defence and Dune Restoration

Near-term

Implement and maintain robust coastal defence structures (e.g., seawalls, groynes) and invest in dune restoration programs to mitigate erosion and inundation from sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: $$$$

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a comprehensive heatwave action plan, including establishing cooling centres, public awareness campaigns on heat safety, and upgrading infrastructure to improve thermal resilience.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness and Fuel Management

Near-term

Enhance bushfire preparedness through strategic fuel management in surrounding areas, community education on Fire Danger Ratings, and ensuring properties comply with the Fire Regulations.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Stormwater Management and Flood Mitigation

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems to cope with increased rainfall intensity and implement localized flood mitigation measures in known inundation hotspots.

Est. cost: $$$

Learn more

Building Code Updates for Resilience

Long-term

Advocate for and adopt updated building codes that mandate higher standards for resilience against coastal hazards, extreme heat, and bushfire threats.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

About San Remo's Climate Risk Profile

San Remo, a coastal town in Victoria, is situated in a region with a complex climate risk profile. Its low-lying coastal position makes it particularly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion. These factors contribute to a high overall climate risk score, demanding careful consideration for residents and future development.

The suburb experiences a moderate risk of bushfires, primarily due to its proximity to coastal heathlands and grasslands. While not as severe as some inland areas, the risk of ember attack and the potential for fires to spread rapidly in dry conditions are significant concerns, especially during hotter, drier summers.

Heatwaves pose a substantial and growing threat to San Remo. With rising average temperatures and an increasing frequency of extreme heat days, the health and well-being of residents, particularly vulnerable populations, are at risk. The potential for heat stress events necessitates robust public health strategies and infrastructure resilience.

Flood risk in San Remo is primarily associated with extreme rainfall events and storm surges, exacerbated by sea level rise. While major riverine flooding is less of a concern, localized inundation and coastal flooding during severe weather events can impact properties and infrastructure. The combination of these hazards underscores the need for comprehensive climate adaptation planning.

Data sources: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) · CSIRO · Country Fire Authority (CFA) · Victorian State Government · Bass Coast Shire Council · ClimateNest Analysis

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the primary climate risk for San Remo?

The primary climate risks for San Remo are coastal inundation and erosion due to sea level rise, and increasingly severe heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a significant concern.

How will sea level rise affect San Remo?

Sea level rise will increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding, storm surges, and coastal erosion, potentially impacting properties and infrastructure along the foreshore and in low-lying areas.

Is San Remo prone to bushfires?

Yes, San Remo is located in a bushfire-prone area due to its proximity to coastal heath and grasslands. Ember attack from nearby fires is a key risk.

What can I do to prepare my property for climate risks in San Remo?

Prepare by understanding your property's specific risks (flood, bushfire, heat), maintaining your property (e.g., clearing gutters, managing vegetation), having an emergency plan, and considering climate-resilient building materials.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Bass Coast Shire?

You can find detailed information on the Bass Coast Shire Council website, including their Environment and Sustainability Strategy, planning scheme maps, and emergency management resources.

How often are heatwaves expected to increase in San Remo?

Climate projections indicate a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in San Remo, with more extreme heat days expected each year by mid-century.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections