Climate Risk in Stavely, Victoria

Stavely, Victoria· Ararat Rural City
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Stavely faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is projected to increase the severity and frequency of these events, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Stavely

increasing

Flood

40/100

Stavely faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and nearby waterways. Local drainage infrastructure may be overwhelmed during heavy downpours.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area surrounding Stavely is prone to bushfires, particularly during hot and dry summer months. The presence of grasslands and nearby forests increases the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
increasing

Heat

50/100

Stavely experiences periods of high temperatures during summer, leading to potential heat stress for vulnerable populations. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Stavely is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Stavely

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Stavely experiences periods of high temperatures during summer, leading to potential heat stress for vulnerable populations. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Stavely faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and nearby waterways. Local drainage infrastructure may be overwhelmed during heavy downpours.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Stavely is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area surrounding Stavely is prone to bushfires, particularly during hot and dry summer months. The presence of grasslands and nearby forests increases the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·Higher temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves
  • 3.Review insurance options
  • 4.Develop an emergency plan

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Hopkins River
Elevation Range
250-300m
Flood Zone
Low-lying areas near waterways

Historical flood data indicates localized flooding during periods of heavy rainfall.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to grasslands and forests
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area has a history of bushfires, with several incidents recorded in recent decades.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves typically last for several days, with temperatures exceeding 35°C.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
N/A
Erosion Risk
N/A

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Stavely.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Stavely threatened properties and required emergency response.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Stavely experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred after a period of heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Stavely is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher risks from flooding, bushfires and heatwaves.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement bushfire management strategies

Near-term

Conduct fuel reduction burns and create firebreaks to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote community awareness

Long-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Stavely's Climate Risk Profile

Stavely, located in Victoria, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to intense rainfall, bushfires during dry seasons, and heatwaves in summer.

Flooding can occur when local waterways overflow or drainage systems are overwhelmed. Bushfire risk is elevated due to the surrounding vegetation and dry conditions. Heatwaves pose a threat to vulnerable residents, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks. Projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including more severe floods, longer bushfire seasons, and hotter summers. This will require the community to adapt and implement strategies to mitigate the impacts.

Local authorities and residents need to work together to enhance resilience. This includes improving infrastructure, implementing early warning systems, and promoting community awareness. Individual actions, such as preparing emergency kits and developing evacuation plans, are also crucial.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Victorian State Emergency Service · Ararat Rural City Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Stavely?

The main climate risks in Stavely are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare for a flood in Stavely?

You can prepare for a flood by developing an emergency plan, assembling an emergency kit, and staying informed about weather forecasts.

What should I do during a heatwave in Stavely?

During a heatwave, stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How is the local council addressing climate change in Stavely?

The Ararat Rural City Council is developing and implementing climate strategies to reduce emissions and enhance community resilience.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Stavely?

You can find more information about climate risks in Stavely on the Ararat Rural City Council website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the Victorian State Emergency Service website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections