Ventnor Climate Risk Assessment

Ventnor, Victoria· Bass Coast Shire Council· 3922
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Ventnor, located on Phillip Island, faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by significant coastal hazards including erosion and inundation. While bushfire risk is relatively low, heat stress is a growing concern. Residents should be aware of increasing flood risks associated with storm surges and sea level rise.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
7.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ventnor

increasing

Flood

40/100

Moderate flood risk due to proximity to coastal waters and potential for storm surge inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Bushfire

30/100

Low to moderate bushfire risk, with some areas bordering uncleared land.

Key drivers:

  • ·Vegetation type
  • ·Fire weather conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

High heat risk due to coastal location and potential for heatwaves.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme heat days
increasing

Coastal

70/100

High coastal erosion and inundation risk due to exposure to wave action and sea level rise.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Coastal erosion
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ventnor

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

High heat risk due to coastal location and potential for heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme heat days

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Moderate flood risk due to proximity to coastal waters and potential for storm surge inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

70/100

High coastal erosion and inundation risk due to exposure to wave action and sea level rise.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Coastal erosion
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Low to moderate bushfire risk, with some areas bordering uncleared land.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Vegetation type
  • ·Fire weather conditions

Projections (RCP 4.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums and potential for reduced cover due to high coastal and flood risks.

Price Impact

Potential negative impact on property values in high-risk coastal zones.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Review council flood and bushfire overlay maps.
  • 2.Investigate current and future coastal erosion projections.
  • 3.Assess property elevation and drainage.
  • 4.Check insurance policy details and exclusions.
  • 5.Understand local emergency service response times.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Southern Ocean / Western Port Bay
Elevation Range
0-20m
Flood Zone
Coastal inundation zones, low-lying areas

Flood risk is primarily associated with storm surge and king tides exacerbated by sea level rise.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Variable, some properties border uncleared land and coastal vegetation.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area overlay applies to significant portions of the suburb.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Risk is influenced by vegetation type, fuel loads, and prevailing weather conditions. Strategic fuel management is important.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
24.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Coastal location provides some moderation, but heatwaves are becoming more intense and frequent. Vulnerable populations require specific attention.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
High

Historical Climate Events

1998
coastalMajor

Significant coastal erosion and storm surge impacted Phillip Island, including areas near Ventnor, following severe storms.

Source
2016
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Victoria, with temperatures in the Bass Coast region reaching into the high 30s.

Source
2021
stormModerate

Severe weather systems brought heavy rainfall and strong winds to coastal Victoria, causing localized flooding and power outages in the Bass Coast Shire.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP 4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire303.2(+0.2)3.3(+0.3)
heat606.6(+0.6)7.2(+1.2)
coastal707.7(+0.7)8.5(+1.5)

By 2030, Ventnor is projected to experience a noticeable increase in overall climate risk, driven significantly by rising sea levels and more frequent extreme heat events. Coastal erosion and storm surge impacts will become more pronounced.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Dune Restoration and Protection

Near-term

Implement programs to restore and enhance coastal dunes to act as natural buffers against erosion and storm surge.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Upgrade Stormwater Drainage Systems

Near-term

Invest in upgrading and maintaining stormwater infrastructure to better manage increased rainfall intensity and reduce localized flooding.

Est. cost: $$$

Learn more

Promote Water-Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD)

Long-term

Encourage the adoption of WSUD principles in new developments and retrofits to manage stormwater runoff and reduce heat.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Create a community-specific heatwave action plan, including identifying vulnerable populations and establishing cooling centers.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Immediate

Maintain defendable space around properties, clear gutters, and have a well-rehearsed bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

About Ventnor's Climate Risk Profile

Ventnor, situated on the southern coast of Phillip Island in Victoria, presents a complex climate risk profile for its residents. The suburb's geographical position directly exposes it to the full force of coastal weather systems, making coastal erosion and inundation the most significant climate-related threats. With sea levels projected to rise and storm intensity increasing, the risk of coastal inundation during extreme weather events is expected to escalate.

The bushfire risk in Ventnor is generally considered low to moderate. While the suburb is not surrounded by dense, continuous bushland, pockets of vegetation and its proximity to rural areas mean that the potential for bushfire ignition and spread exists, particularly during prolonged dry periods. Fire management strategies and awareness remain important for residents in these areas.

Heat stress is another growing concern for Ventnor. As global temperatures rise, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are predicted to increase. Coastal breezes may offer some respite, but prolonged periods of extreme heat can still pose significant health risks, particularly to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect, though less pronounced than in major cities, can also contribute to higher temperatures within the suburb.

Flood risk, while distinct from coastal inundation, is also a factor. Low-lying areas and proximity to coastal drainage systems can be susceptible to flooding during intense rainfall events, especially when combined with high tides or storm surges. Understanding local drainage patterns and potential flood pathways is crucial for property owners.

In summary, Ventnor's climate risk is dominated by its coastal exposure. While other hazards like bushfire and heat require ongoing vigilance, the long-term challenges posed by sea level rise and increased storm activity necessitate proactive adaptation and planning for the community.

Data sources: ClimateNest Analysis · Bass Coast Shire Council · CFA - Country Fire Authority · SES - State Emergency Service Victoria · Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) · CSIRO · DELWP - Dept. of Environment, Land, Water and Planning

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main climate risk for Ventnor?

The primary climate risk for Ventnor is coastal erosion and inundation due to its location on Phillip Island's southern coast, exposed to the Southern Ocean. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity are exacerbating these risks.

How will sea level rise affect Ventnor?

Sea level rise is projected to increase the frequency and severity of coastal inundation during high tides and storm surges, leading to greater erosion of beaches and foreshore areas. This could impact properties close to the coast.

Is Ventnor prone to bushfires?

Ventnor has a low to moderate bushfire risk. While not surrounded by dense forests, some areas border vegetation and coastal scrub, and the suburb is designated as a Bushfire Prone Area. Residents should maintain fire preparedness.

What can I do to protect my property from coastal erosion in Ventnor?

For properties directly threatened, consider consulting with coastal engineers about protection measures. For most residents, maintaining vegetation, adhering to building setbacks, and staying informed about council and state coastal management plans are key.

Are there specific heatwave risks for Ventnor residents?

Yes, like much of Victoria, Ventnor is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves. Coastal breezes may offer some relief, but prolonged periods of high temperatures can still pose health risks, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Staying hydrated and seeking cool environments is important.

Where can I find official flood maps for Ventnor?

Official flood information, including maps and overlays, can typically be found on the Bass Coast Shire Council's website under their planning and environment sections, or through state agencies like DELWP.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections