Climate Risk in Lesmurdie, Western Australia
Lesmurdie faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, and a high risk from bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly bushfire and heatwave events. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Lesmurdie
Flood
Lesmurdie faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is influenced by the hilly terrain and existing drainage infrastructure.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
Lesmurdie has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to extensive bushland areas. Dry summers and strong winds exacerbate the potential for fire spread.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
Heat
Lesmurdie experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat days projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Lesmurdie has a low risk from coastal hazards due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from the coast
Wind
Moderate wind risk — winter storms
Storm
Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms
Social
Moderate social stability
Energy
Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Lesmurdie
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Lesmurdie experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat days projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
flood Risk
Lesmurdie faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is influenced by the hilly terrain and existing drainage infrastructure.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Inadequate drainage capacity
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.7
2050
5.3
coastal Risk
Lesmurdie has a low risk from coastal hazards due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from the coast
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.5
2050
1.5
bushfire Risk
Lesmurdie has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to extensive bushland areas. Dry summers and strong winds exacerbate the potential for fire spread.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
- ·Strong winds
- ·Increased ignition sources
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.8
2050
8.2
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated bushfire risk.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check bushfire risk assessment reports.
- 2.Assess flood risk for the specific property.
- 3.Review insurance coverage and premiums.
- 4.Consider the cost of implementing adaptation measures.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Lesmurdie Brook
- Elevation Range
- 150-300m
- Flood Zone
- Areas near Lesmurdie Brook are susceptible to flooding.
Historical flood events have been recorded along Lesmurdie Brook, impacting properties in low-lying areas.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to large areas of native bushland.
- Planning Overlay
- DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
Many properties in Lesmurdie are located within designated bushfire prone areas, requiring specific building standards and fire management plans.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 32.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3.5 days
The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades, leading to more frequent and intense heat stress events.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 25 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in Lesmurdie, particularly along Lesmurdie Brook.
SourceA significant bushfire threatened properties in Lesmurdie, requiring evacuations and property protection measures.
SourceA prolonged heatwave resulted in increased demand for emergency services and strain on infrastructure.
SourceMinor flooding occurred after a period of heavy rainfall, affecting some low-lying properties.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 42 | 4.5(+0.3) | 4.8(+0.6) |
| bushfire | 75 | 7.9(+0.4) | 8.3(+0.8) |
| heat | 60 | 6.6(+0.6) | 7.0(+1.0) |
| coastal | 15 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
By 2030, Lesmurdie is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, driven primarily by increased bushfire and heatwave risks. Flooding risk will also increase slightly due to more intense rainfall events.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve Bushfire Preparedness
ImmediateImplement bushfire protection measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties, installing firebreaks, and developing a bushfire survival plan.
Est. cost: Low to Medium
Learn moreUpgrade Drainage Infrastructure
Near-termInvest in upgrading drainage infrastructure to improve flood management and reduce the risk of localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.
Est. cost: Medium to High
Learn moreImplement Heatwave Management Plan
Near-termDevelop and implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.
Est. cost: Low to Medium
Learn morePromote Water Conservation
Long-termEncourage water conservation measures to reduce water demand and ensure water security during periods of drought and heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Lesmurdie's Climate Risk Profile
Lesmurdie, located in the foothills of the Darling Scarp, is particularly vulnerable to bushfires due to its proximity to dense bushland. The dry summers and strong easterly winds create ideal conditions for fire spread, posing a significant threat to properties and residents.
Flooding is also a concern in Lesmurdie, especially during periods of heavy rainfall. Creeks and drainage systems can become overwhelmed, leading to localized flooding of properties and roads. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, further exacerbating the risk of flooding.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Lesmurdie, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The urban heat island effect can also contribute to higher temperatures in built-up areas.
While Lesmurdie is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, could still affect the suburb. Residents should take proactive steps to adapt to these changing conditions and mitigate the risks.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES
Local Government Resources
City of Kalamunda
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the biggest climate risk in Lesmurdie?
The biggest climate risk in Lesmurdie is bushfire, due to its location adjacent to large areas of bushland and the dry, hot summers.
How will climate change affect property values in Lesmurdie?
Properties in high-risk areas, particularly those prone to bushfire, may experience a decrease in value due to increased insurance costs and potential damage.
What can I do to protect my home from bushfires?
You can protect your home by clearing vegetation around the property, installing firebreaks, and developing a bushfire survival plan. Contact DFES for more information.
Is Lesmurdie at risk of flooding?
Yes, Lesmurdie is at risk of flooding, particularly in areas near Lesmurdie Brook. Heavy rainfall can cause localized flooding of properties and roads.
Where can I find information about emergency services in Lesmurdie?
You can find information about emergency services on the DFES website or by contacting the City of Kalamunda.
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