Climate Risk in Manly, WA

Manly, Western Australia
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Manly, WA, faces moderate climate risks, particularly from heatwaves and bushfires. Sea level rise and flooding also pose increasing threats. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events in the future.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.2
Bushfire
6.5
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly

increasing

Flood

42/100

Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential coastal inundation. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

65/100

Manly has a relatively high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

71/100

Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

54/100

Manly faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.8

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

42/100

Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential coastal inundation. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

54/100

Manly faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

65/100

Manly has a relatively high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.6

2050

6.7

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values in vulnerable areas may be affected.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider sea level rise projections
  • 4.Review insurance options

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Indian Ocean
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal Flood Zone

Low-lying areas near the coast are most vulnerable to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb is designated as a bushfire-prone area.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2010
stormModerate

A severe storm caused localized flooding and damage to property.

Source
2015
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns.

Source
2021
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near the suburb caused evacuations and property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood424.5(+0.3)5.0(+0.8)
bushfire656.6(+0.1)6.7(+0.2)
heat717.9(+0.8)8.6(+1.5)
coastal545.6(+0.2)6.0(+0.6)

By 2030, Manly is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, with a smaller increase in flood and coastal risks. Bushfire risk remains relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Implement strategies to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, such as establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Invest in coastal protection measures

Long-term

Implement strategies to protect coastal areas from sea level rise and erosion, such as building seawalls and restoring natural habitats.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems

Near-term

Improve stormwater drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Manly's Climate Risk Profile

Manly, Western Australia, is a suburb that will be increasingly affected by climate change. The primary risks include more frequent and intense heatwaves, an elevated bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland, and increasing threats from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and erosion.

Heatwaves are projected to become more common and severe, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Residents should take precautions during heatwaves, such as staying hydrated and seeking air-conditioned environments.

The suburb's proximity to bushland increases the risk of bushfires, particularly during the hot, dry summer months. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fire hazards and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Sea level rise and coastal erosion pose a long-term threat to low-lying areas of Manly. Planning for coastal adaptation measures will be crucial to protect infrastructure and property.

Overall, Manly residents should stay informed about climate risks and take steps to prepare for the impacts of climate change. This includes having emergency plans in place, maintaining insurance coverage, and supporting local efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Manly?

The main risks include more frequent and intense heatwaves, an elevated bushfire risk, and increasing threats from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and erosion.

How will heatwaves affect Manly residents?

Heatwaves are projected to become more common and severe, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Manly?

Maintain your property to reduce fire hazards and be prepared to evacuate if necessary. Stay informed about bushfire risks and have an emergency plan in place.

How will sea level rise affect Manly?

Sea level rise poses a long-term threat to low-lying areas of Manly. Planning for coastal adaptation measures will be crucial to protect infrastructure and property.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Manly?

You can find more information on the websites of the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), CSIRO, and the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES).

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections