Heat Risk in Upper Manilla, NSW: 2026 Assessment
Heat Risk Score
6.0/10Upper Manilla is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Key Facts
- Heat Risk
- Upper Manilla is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
- Trend
- increasing
- Suburb
- Upper Manilla, NSW
- Overall Risk
- Medium
- Postcode
- 2346
- Highest high-risk exposure
- 7.6% of land (bushfire)
Heat Risk Analysis
Upper Manilla in New South Wales faces elevated extreme heat risk. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reports that Australia's average temperature has increased by approximately 1.5 °C since 1910, with the frequency of extreme heat days rising across most regions.
The urban heat island (UHI) effect can make built-up areas of Upper Manilla warmer than surrounding rural areas, particularly on summer nights. Dark roof materials, limited tree canopy cover, and heat-absorbing surfaces contribute to localised heat stress that varies by property.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.
Get an address-level heat risk assessment from ClimateNest for Upper Manilla including cooling cost estimates, heatwave vulnerability scoring, and adaptation recommendations tailored to your property.
Upper Manilla (postcode 2346) is tracked in ClimateNest's suburb hazard model, which maps the share of the suburb's land exposed to each hazard at high and moderate levels. The suburb's highest high-risk exposures are bushfire (7.6% of land in high-risk zones), surface flood (5.3% of land in high-risk zones), riverine flood (5.2% of land in high-risk zones). Exposure is not uniform across Upper Manilla — individual properties can sit well above or below these averages, so an address-level check is recommended before buying, selling or insuring.
Local Hazard Evidence
Historical Events
A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.
Adaptation & Mitigation Actions
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termUpgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood barriers to protect properties from increased flood risk.
Est. cost: Medium
Develop a Heat Action Plan
ImmediateImplement a community heat action plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.
Est. cost: Low
Enhance Bushfire Preparedness
Near-termProvide residents with resources and training to prepare for bushfires, including creating firebreaks and developing evacuation plans.
Est. cost: Low
Promote Water Conservation
Long-termEncourage water conservation measures to mitigate the impacts of drought and water scarcity associated with climate change.
Est. cost: Low
Council & Emergency Services
Explore Upper Manilla Risk Reports
View other climate risk assessments for Upper Manilla:
Frequently Asked Questions
How hot does Upper Manilla get in summer?
Upper Manilla in New South Wales experiences summer temperatures consistent with the regional climate. BOM publishes historical temperature data for weather stations near Upper Manilla. Get a property-specific heat exposure assessment with projected cooling costs from ClimateNest.
Is extreme heat increasing in Upper Manilla?
Australia-wide, extreme heat events have become more frequent since the mid-20th century, and this trend is consistent with CSIRO climate projections for New South Wales. Continued warming is likely through 2050 under all emissions scenarios.
How does heat affect energy costs for Upper Manilla properties?
Higher temperatures increase cooling demand, which raises electricity costs. ClimateNest provides energy cost projections based on your property's specific exposure to extreme heat days in Upper Manilla and the performance of your building envelope.
What heat mitigation measures work best in Upper Manilla?
Effective heat mitigation includes light-coloured roofing (cool roofs), ceiling and wall insulation, double-glazed windows, external shading, cross-ventilation design, and increasing tree canopy around the property. These measures reduce indoor temperatures and cooling costs.
What share of Upper Manilla is exposed to high bushfire risk?
ClimateNest's hazard overlay maps 7.6% of Upper Manilla in high-risk zones for bushfire, with a further 69.4% in moderate-risk zones. Suburb-level exposure is not uniform — individual properties can differ from these averages, so an address-level check is recommended.
Is Upper Manilla Safe from Climate Risk?
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