Climate Risk Profile: Burpengary, QLD

Burpengary, Queensland· Moreton Bay Regional· 4505
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Burpengary faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly through increased rainfall intensity, hotter temperatures, and sea level rise. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Burpengary

increasing

Flood

60/100

Burpengary faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Burpengary has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Burpengary is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Burpengary faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to Moreton Bay. Sea level rise and storm surges are expected to increase coastal erosion and inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Burpengary

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Burpengary is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Burpengary faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Burpengary faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to Moreton Bay. Sea level rise and storm surges are expected to increase coastal erosion and inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Burpengary has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone or bushfire-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Burpengary Creek
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Medium

Several areas within Burpengary are identified as flood zones by the Moreton Bay Regional Council.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to large areas of bushland to the west.
Planning Overlay
Qld Fire and Emergency Services Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western parts of Burpengary are designated as bushfire prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Average January maximum temperature is increasing, with more frequent heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
8 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low to Moderate
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodMajor

The 2011 Brisbane floods affected Burpengary, causing widespread inundation and damage.

Source
2009
stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and property damage in Burpengary.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Record-breaking heatwave conditions affected Burpengary, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Source
2022
floodMajor

Major flooding event impacted Burpengary, causing significant damage to homes and infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal505.4(+0.4)5.8(+0.8)

By 2030, Burpengary is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity. Flooding and coastal hazards are also expected to worsen.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees, drainage improvements, and flood-proofing of buildings.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as fuel reduction burns, fire breaks, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Develop heatwave preparedness plans, including cooling centers, public awareness campaigns, and support for vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Protection

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls, beach nourishment, and managed retreat from vulnerable areas.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Education

Near-term

Raise community awareness about climate risks and adaptation measures through workshops, information sessions, and online resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Burpengary's Climate Risk Profile

Burpengary, located in the Moreton Bay region of Queensland, is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. Its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways make it vulnerable to flooding, while surrounding bushland increases the risk of bushfires. The suburb is also likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change.

Flooding is a significant concern for Burpengary, with potential for increased rainfall intensity leading to more frequent and severe flood events. Sea level rise and storm surges also pose a threat to coastal areas. Bushfire risk is also expected to increase due to hotter, drier conditions and increased fuel load.

Heatwaves are becoming more common and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further exacerbate heat stress in built-up areas. Coastal hazards, such as erosion and inundation, are also expected to increase due to sea level rise and storm surges.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including improved infrastructure, community education, and adaptation measures. Residents should take steps to prepare for extreme weather events and reduce their carbon footprint. Local governance plays a crucial role in implementing climate strategies and ensuring community resilience.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Fire and Emergency Services · Moreton Bay Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Burpengary?

Burpengary faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events.

How will climate change affect property values in Burpengary?

Properties in flood-prone or bushfire-prone areas may experience price reductions. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Burpengary?

The Moreton Bay Regional Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans to mitigate the risks of climate change.

How can I prepare my home for extreme weather events?

You can flood-proof your home, clear vegetation around your property, and develop a heatwave preparedness plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Burpengary?

You can find more information on the Moreton Bay Regional Council website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services website.

What is the projected increase in average temperatures for Burpengary by 2050?

Under a high emissions scenario, average temperatures in Burpengary are projected to increase by 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2050.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections