Climate Risk in Mackay Harbour, Queensland

Mackay Harbour, Queensland
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Mackay Harbour faces significant climate risks, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity are major concerns. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
3.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mackay Harbour

increasing

Flood

65/100

Mackay Harbour faces a notable risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

32/100

The risk of bushfire in Mackay Harbour is relatively low due to the suburb's coastal location and limited vegetation. However, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Strong winds
increasing

Heat

70/100

Mackay Harbour experiences high temperatures and humidity during summer, leading to heat stress. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

60/100

Mackay Harbour is vulnerable to coastal hazards such as sea level rise, storm surge, and coastal erosion. These hazards can damage infrastructure and property.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mackay Harbour

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Mackay Harbour experiences high temperatures and humidity during summer, leading to heat stress. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Mackay Harbour faces a notable risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

Mackay Harbour is vulnerable to coastal hazards such as sea level rise, storm surge, and coastal erosion. These hazards can damage infrastructure and property.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

32/100

The risk of bushfire in Mackay Harbour is relatively low due to the suburb's coastal location and limited vegetation. However, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Increased temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

3.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Properties closer to the coast may experience price depreciation.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to sea level rise.
  • 3.Inquire about council plans for coastal protection.
  • 4.Consider the cost of insurance premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Pioneer River
Elevation Range
0-5 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal Flood Zone

Historical flood data indicates frequent inundation of low-lying areas during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
5 km
Planning Overlay
Not significantly affected by bushfire overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
No

The area is primarily urbanized, reducing the risk of significant bushfire impact.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The suburb experiences several days above 35°C during summer, increasing heat stress risk.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2008
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding in Mackay, including Mackay Harbour, disrupting transport and damaging property.

Source
2015
stormModerate

Severe storms with strong winds caused damage to buildings and infrastructure in Mackay Harbour.

Source
2018
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on the electricity grid.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall associated with a tropical low caused flash flooding in low-lying areas of Mackay Harbour.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire323.3(+0.1)3.4(+0.2)
heat707.6(+0.6)8.0(+1.0)
coastal606.4(+0.4)6.9(+0.9)

By 2030, Mackay Harbour is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave intensity and coastal flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Construct Coastal Defenses

Long-term

Build seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and storm surge.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Early Warning System

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to alert residents to impending heatwaves and provide advice on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce demand on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mackay Harbour's Climate Risk Profile

Mackay Harbour is a coastal suburb in Queensland that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges, heatwaves during the summer months, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise.

The risk of flooding is exacerbated by the suburb's low-lying topography and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can overwhelm drainage systems and cause widespread inundation. Sea level rise is also increasing the risk of coastal flooding and erosion.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant health risk to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas.

Coastal erosion is a long-term threat to Mackay Harbour, with sea level rise gradually eroding beaches and foreshores. This can damage infrastructure and property, and reduce the amenity of coastal areas.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. Adaptation measures include improving drainage infrastructure, building seawalls, and implementing heatwave early warning systems. Mitigation measures include reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow the pace of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Emergency Services · Mackay Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Mackay Harbour?

The main climate change risks in Mackay Harbour are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Mackay Harbour?

Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal flooding and erosion in Mackay Harbour. Low-lying areas may become permanently inundated, and beaches may erode.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Mackay Regional Council is developing and implementing a climate change strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

How can I prepare for a heatwave?

To prepare for a heatwave, stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Mackay Harbour?

You can find information about flood risks in Mackay Harbour on the Mackay Regional Council website and the Queensland Government website.

Are insurance premiums likely to increase in Mackay Harbour due to climate change?

Yes, insurance premiums are likely to increase in Mackay Harbour due to the increased risk of flooding and coastal erosion.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections