Climate Risk in Mackay, Queensland

Mackay, Queensland· Mackay Regional Council· 4740
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Mackay is a coastal city in Queensland that faces several climate-related risks, including flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting infrastructure, ecosystems, and human health. Residents and businesses should take steps to adapt to these changing conditions.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
6.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mackay

increasing

Flood

75/100

Mackay is prone to flooding due to its location near the Pioneer River and susceptibility to heavy rainfall events. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

30/100

While not as significant as flooding, Mackay faces some bushfire risk, particularly in areas bordering bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Mackay already experiences high temperatures, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

65/100

As a coastal city, Mackay is vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Climate change is expected to worsen these impacts, threatening infrastructure and coastal ecosystems.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mackay

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Mackay already experiences high temperatures, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (High Emissions)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

75/100

Mackay is prone to flooding due to its location near the Pioneer River and susceptibility to heavy rainfall events. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Riverine flooding

Projections (High Emissions)

2030

8.0

2050

8.5

Data source

coastal Risk

65/100

As a coastal city, Mackay is vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Climate change is expected to worsen these impacts, threatening infrastructure and coastal ecosystems.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (High Emissions)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

While not as significant as flooding, Mackay faces some bushfire risk, particularly in areas bordering bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (High Emissions)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas at high risk of flooding or coastal erosion.

Price Impact

Properties in vulnerable areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of heatwaves on energy costs.
  • 4.Inquire about insurance coverage and premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Pioneer River
Elevation Range
0-30 meters
Flood Zone
Areas along the Pioneer River and low-lying coastal areas are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted residential and commercial areas in Mackay.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of Eungella National Park and other bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Refer to the Queensland Bushfire Prone Area map.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas bordering bushland are at higher risk during dry periods.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves can put a strain on the electricity grid and increase demand for cooling.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Coastal erosion is an ongoing issue along the Mackay coastline.

Historical Climate Events

2008
floodMajor

Severe flooding occurred in Mackay following heavy rainfall, causing widespread damage and disruption.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Tropical Cyclone Debbie caused significant damage to infrastructure and property in Mackay.

Source
2018
heatwaveModerate

Mackay experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Mackay, leading to road closures and property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: High Emissions

HazardToday20302050
flood758.0(+0.5)8.5(+1.0)
bushfire303.3(+0.3)3.5(+0.5)
heat606.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)
coastal657.1(+0.6)7.7(+1.2)

Under a high emissions scenario, Mackay is projected to experience increased flooding, more frequent heatwaves, and greater coastal erosion by 2030.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Immediate

Invest in infrastructure to reduce flood risk, such as levees, drainage systems, and flood-resistant building codes.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Protect Coastal Areas

Near-term

Implement measures to protect coastal areas from erosion and sea level rise, such as seawalls, beach nourishment, and mangrove restoration.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Develop a comprehensive heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations, including cooling centers, public awareness campaigns, and early warning systems.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation through education, incentives, and water-efficient technologies to reduce the strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mackay's Climate Risk Profile

Mackay, located on the central Queensland coast, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The city's proximity to the Pioneer River and the coast makes it susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and sea level rise. Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a significant threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations.

The increasing intensity of rainfall events is a major concern for Mackay. The city has a history of flooding, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of these events. This could lead to damage to property, disruption of infrastructure, and potential loss of life.

Sea level rise is another significant threat to Mackay. As the sea level rises, coastal erosion will become more severe, and storm surges will reach further inland. This could damage coastal infrastructure, inundate low-lying areas, and threaten coastal ecosystems.

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves also pose a serious risk to Mackay. High temperatures can lead to heatstroke, dehydration, and other health problems, particularly for the elderly, children, and people with chronic illnesses. The urban heat island effect can further exacerbate these risks in densely populated areas.

Addressing these climate risks will require a coordinated effort from all levels of government, as well as the community. This includes investing in infrastructure to reduce flood risk, implementing measures to protect coastal areas, and developing strategies to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves. It also requires raising awareness of climate risks and empowering individuals and businesses to take action to adapt to these changing conditions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Fire and Emergency Services · Mackay Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Mackay?

Mackay is primarily at risk from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change.

How is the Mackay Regional Council addressing climate change?

The Mackay Regional Council is developing and implementing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Check their website for details.

What can I do to prepare for flooding in Mackay?

Stay informed about flood warnings, develop a flood plan, and consider flood-proofing your home.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Mackay?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find information about bushfire risks in Mackay?

Consult the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) website for information about bushfire risks and preparedness.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections