Climate Risk Assessment: Paget, QLD

Paget, Queensland

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Paget faces moderate risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in the coming decades. Residents should take steps to prepare for these challenges.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Paget

increasing

Flood

60/100

Paget faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

stable

Bushfire

30/100

The bushfire risk in Paget is relatively low due to the developed nature of the area. However, surrounding vegetation poses a potential threat during dry periods.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Windy conditions

increasing

Heat

70/100

Paget experiences high temperatures during summer, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

60/100

Paget is located near the coast and is exposed to potential coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surge. These hazards could impact infrastructure and property.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Paget

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Paget experiences high temperatures during summer, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Paget faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

Paget is located near the coast and is exposed to potential coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surge. These hazards could impact infrastructure and property.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The bushfire risk in Paget is relatively low due to the developed nature of the area. However, surrounding vegetation poses a potential threat during dry periods.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Windy conditions
·Ignition sources

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increasing frequency and severity of climate-related events.

Price Impact

Properties in low-lying areas may experience a decrease in value due to flood risk.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Pioneer River
Elevation Range: 0-10 meters
Flood Zone: Likely

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 1-5 km
Planning Overlay: Not prominent
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Moderate
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2008

floodModerate

Major flooding in the Mackay region impacted Paget, causing disruption to businesses and infrastructure.

Source

2015

stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to buildings and infrastructure in Paget.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased demand for electricity and put strain on the power grid.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	30	3.2(+0.2)	3.5(+0.5)
heat	70	7.8(+0.8)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)

By 2030, Paget is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a heightened risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Coastal risks will also increase due to sea level rise.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning system

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to alert residents and businesses to impending heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen coastal defenses

Long-term

Construct or reinforce coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and storm surge.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Promote energy efficiency

Near-term

Encourage businesses and residents to adopt energy-efficient practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Paget's Climate Risk Profile

Paget, Queensland, is an industrial suburb located near Mackay. Its proximity to the coast and low-lying areas makes it vulnerable to several climate-related hazards.

Flooding is a significant concern for Paget. Increased rainfall intensity due to climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of floods. This could disrupt business operations and damage infrastructure.

Heatwaves are another major risk. Rising temperatures will lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing health risks to workers and residents, especially those working outdoors.

Coastal hazards, such as sea level rise and storm surge, also threaten Paget. These hazards could inundate low-lying areas and damage coastal infrastructure.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. Businesses and residents should invest in flood protection, improve building insulation, and reduce their carbon footprint.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Government · Mackay Regional Council · QFES

Local Government Resources

Mackay Regional Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Paget?

The main climate change risks for Paget include increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surge.

How will climate change affect businesses in Paget?

Climate change could disrupt business operations due to flooding, heatwaves, and damage to infrastructure. Businesses may also face increased insurance costs.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change?

Residents can take steps to prepare for climate change by investing in flood protection, improving building insulation, and reducing their carbon footprint.

Is Paget likely to experience more extreme weather events in the future?

Yes, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Paget, including floods, heatwaves, and storms.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Paget?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Paget from the Mackay Regional Council, the Queensland Government, and the Bureau of Meteorology.