Climate Risk Assessment for Modbury, SA

Modbury, South Australia

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Modbury faces increasing risks from heatwaves and moderate flood risk. While coastal risks are negligible, residents should prepare for more frequent and intense heat events and potential flooding from heavy rainfall.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Modbury

increasing

Flood

45/100

Modbury faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby creeks and drainage systems. Development and urbanization have increased runoff, exacerbating the risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

stable

Bushfire

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Modbury is relatively low compared to other areas in South Australia, but still present due to proximity to some vegetated areas. Grassfires are a more common concern.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures

increasing

Heat

70/100

Modbury is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

As an inland suburb, Modbury has a very low direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

·Distance from coast

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty northerly winds

stable

Storm

24/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — summer cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Modbury

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Modbury is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

As an inland suburb, Modbury has a very low direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Modbury is relatively low compared to other areas in South Australia, but still present due to proximity to some vegetated areas. Grassfires are a more common concern.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures
·Wind

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to increased flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience some price impact.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider energy efficiency upgrades.
4.Review local council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Dry Creek
Elevation Range: 50-80m
Flood Zone: Areas near Dry Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 2km to Cobbler Creek Recreation Park
Planning Overlay: Check the CFS website for current fire danger ratings.
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2009

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Adelaide and surrounding suburbs, including Modbury, causing heat stress and health concerns.

Source

2016

stormModerate

A severe storm caused flash flooding and power outages in parts of Adelaide, including Modbury.

Source

2022

floodMinor

Heavy rainfall led to localized flooding in some areas of Modbury, affecting roads and properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.8(+0.3)	5.0(+0.5)
bushfire	30	3.1(+0.1)	3.3(+0.3)
heat	70	8.0(+1.0)	9.0(+2.0)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Modbury is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity. Flood risk may also increase slightly due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and maintain local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning systems

Immediate

Develop and implement heatwave early warning systems to alert vulnerable populations and provide guidance on protective measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote energy efficiency and cool roofs

Near-term

Encourage the adoption of energy-efficient building designs and cool roof technologies to reduce the urban heat island effect and lower energy consumption.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community education on emergency preparedness

Long-term

Provide community education programs on how to prepare for and respond to heatwaves, floods, and other climate-related hazards.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Modbury's Climate Risk Profile

Modbury, located in South Australia, is projected to experience notable shifts in its climate risk profile over the coming decades. The primary concerns for Modbury are increasing heatwave frequency and intensity, coupled with a moderate risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events.

The risk of heatwaves is expected to increase significantly. Rising average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events will pose challenges for vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The urban heat island effect may further exacerbate these risks in densely built areas.

Flooding is another area of concern. Increased rainfall intensity can overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure, leading to localized flooding. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Bushfire risk is relatively low compared to other regions in South Australia, but it is still important to maintain awareness and preparedness, especially during dry periods.

Coastal risks are minimal due to Modbury's inland location. However, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the suburb.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SA SES · City of Tea Tree Gully

Local Government Resources

City of Tea Tree Gully

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Modbury?

The main climate change risks for Modbury are increasing heatwave frequency and intensity, and a moderate risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Modbury?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or using fans to stay cool.

What should I do if my property is at risk of flooding?

Check your insurance coverage, elevate valuable items, and have a plan for evacuating if necessary. Monitor local weather forecasts and heed warnings from emergency services.

Is Modbury in a bushfire-prone area?

While Modbury is not considered a high-risk bushfire area, it is still important to be aware of the risks and take precautions, especially during dry periods. Keep your property clear of flammable materials and have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Modbury?

You can find more information on the City of Tea Tree Gully website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the CSIRO website.

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