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Climate Risk Assessment for Rosebud, VIC

Rosebud, Victoria· Mornington Peninsula· 3939
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Rosebud faces a number of climate-related risks, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Residents should take steps to prepare for these risks.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Rosebud

increasing

Flood

60/100

Rosebud faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and stormwater runoff. The proximity to Port Phillip Bay also contributes to potential coastal flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

40/100

Rosebud has a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

70/100

Rosebud is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

60/100

Rosebud is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. Low-lying areas are particularly at risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Rosebud

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Rosebud is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.3

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Rosebud faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and stormwater runoff. The proximity to Port Phillip Bay also contributes to potential coastal flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.2

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

Rosebud is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. Low-lying areas are particularly at risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Rosebud has a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise.
  • 3.Consider the cost of insurance.
  • 4.Evaluate energy efficiency and cooling options.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Port Phillip Bay
Elevation Range
0-30 meters
Flood Zone
Land Subject to Inundation Overlay

Several properties in Rosebud are identified as being within a flood zone.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Arthurs Seat State Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas bordering Arthurs Seat State Park are designated as bushfire prone.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average January maximum temperature is based on historical data from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along the coastline.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in Rosebud, affecting several properties and roads.

Source
2009
heatwaveMajor

The 2009 Victorian heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased heat-related illnesses in Rosebud.

Source
1997
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to properties and infrastructure in Rosebud.

Source
1983
bushfireMajor

Ash Wednesday bushfires impacted the Mornington Peninsula, with significant smoke and ember attacks affecting Rosebud.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.2(+0.2)6.8(+0.8)
bushfire404.1(+0.1)4.5(+0.5)
heat707.4(+0.4)8.5(+1.5)
coastal606.3(+0.3)7.2(+1.2)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Rosebud is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030, with heat and coastal risks increasing more significantly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding from heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen coastal defenses

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and dune restoration, to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Reduce bushfire risk

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as fuel reduction burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Rosebud's Climate Risk Profile

Rosebud, located on the Mornington Peninsula, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's coastal location makes it susceptible to sea level rise and storm surges, which can lead to coastal erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Rising temperatures are also a concern, with more frequent and intense heatwaves posing a risk to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can exacerbate these impacts in built-up areas.

Bushfire risk is another factor, as the surrounding bushland can become dry and flammable during the summer months. Changes in rainfall patterns and increased temperatures can further contribute to bushfire risk.

Flooding from heavy rainfall events and stormwater runoff is also a concern, particularly in areas with poor drainage. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, leading to a higher risk of flooding.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES Victoria · EMV

Local Government Resources

Mornington Peninsula Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Rosebud?

Rosebud is primarily at risk from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change.

How is the council preparing for climate change?

The Mornington Peninsula Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to address these risks.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding?

Consider installing flood barriers, improving drainage, and elevating electrical systems.

How can I prepare for a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find more information about bushfire safety?

Visit the Country Fire Authority (CFA) website for information on bushfire preparedness and safety.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Rosebud, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Rosebud →

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