Climate Risk in Clontarf, QLD

Clontarf, Queensland· Moreton Bay· 4019

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Clontarf is a coastal suburb in Queensland that faces several climate-related risks, including flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are expected to increase with climate change, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should take steps to prepare for these challenges.

Overall Risk Score

58/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

7.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

6.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Clontarf

increasing

Flood

75/100

Clontarf is located in a low-lying coastal area and is susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased rainfall intensity

stable

Bushfire

30/100

Clontarf has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, some areas near parks and reserves may be at slightly higher risk.

Key drivers:

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry vegetation

increasing

Heat

60/100

Clontarf experiences hot summers, and the risk of heatwaves is expected to increase with climate change. This can pose a health risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising temperatures
·Increased humidity

increasing

Coastal

65/100

Clontarf is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. This can damage property and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surge

increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Clontarf

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Clontarf experiences hot summers, and the risk of heatwaves is expected to increase with climate change. This can pose a health risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising temperatures
·Increased humidity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

75/100

Clontarf is located in a low-lying coastal area and is susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased rainfall intensity
·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.0

2050

8.5

Data source

coastal Risk

65/100

Clontarf is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. This can damage property and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surge
·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Clontarf has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, some areas near parks and reserves may be at slightly higher risk.

Primary Drivers

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums due to flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk areas.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
2.Assess coastal erosion risks.
3.Consider heat mitigation measures.
4.Review council climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Moreton Bay
Elevation Range: 0-10m
Flood Zone: Coastal and Riverine

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 1-5km
Planning Overlay: QFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Moderate
Erosion Risk: Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013

floodModerate

Severe flooding impacted Clontarf due to ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald.

Source

2022

floodMajor

Major flooding event caused significant damage in Clontarf and surrounding areas.

Source

2023

stormModerate

Severe storm with strong winds and heavy rainfall caused localized flooding and damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	75	8.0(+0.5)	8.5(+1.0)
bushfire	30	3.2(+0.2)	3.5(+0.5)
heat	60	6.3(+0.3)	6.7(+0.7)
coastal	65	6.9(+0.4)	7.3(+0.8)

By 2030, Clontarf is projected to experience an increase in flood risk due to sea level rise and more intense rainfall events. Heatwave frequency and intensity are also expected to rise, posing a greater threat to vulnerable populations. Coastal erosion will continue to be a concern.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade stormwater drainage

Near-term

Improve stormwater drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding from heavy rainfall.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Construct coastal defenses

Long-term

Build seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning system

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote green infrastructure

Near-term

Increase green spaces and tree cover to reduce the urban heat island effect and improve stormwater management.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Clontarf's Climate Risk Profile

Clontarf, located in the Moreton Bay region of Queensland, is a suburb that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Its low-lying coastal geography makes it particularly susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall, storm surges, and sea level rise. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events pose a significant threat to the community and its infrastructure.

The risk of heatwaves is also a growing concern for Clontarf. As temperatures continue to rise, vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are at greater risk of heat-related illnesses. The urban heat island effect can exacerbate these risks, particularly in areas with limited green space.

Coastal erosion is another significant challenge for Clontarf. Sea level rise and storm surges are contributing to the erosion of beaches and foreshores, threatening property and infrastructure along the coastline. Protecting these areas will require a combination of hard and soft engineering solutions.

Addressing these climate-related risks will require a coordinated effort from all levels of government, as well as the community. This includes investing in infrastructure upgrades, implementing adaptation measures, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. By taking proactive steps, Clontarf can build resilience and protect its community from the worst impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · QFES · Moreton Bay Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Moreton Bay Regional Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Clontarf?

Clontarf faces risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change.

How is the council addressing climate change in Clontarf?

The Moreton Bay Regional Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans to address these risks.

What can I do to prepare for flooding in Clontarf?

Check flood maps, have an emergency plan, and consider flood insurance.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Clontarf?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Clontarf?

Consult the Moreton Bay Regional Council website and the Queensland Government's climate change resources.

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2022 insured disaster losses*

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30-120%

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